OXA's Analysis - NIGERIA: Flawed polls affect democratic stability -

Culled from Newswire - OXA

NIGERIA: Election doubts

EVENT: Nigerians voted for a new president and federal legislators on April 21, following polls for state governors and legislators on April 14.

SIGNIFICANCE: The elections are expected to herald the first civilian to civilian transition of power since independence. Doubts over the fair conduct of the elections have implications for the political and economic stability of a country whose previous democratic experiments have been marred by controversy and violence.

ANALYSIS:

The presidential and federal legislative elections were held as scheduled on April 21, after leading opposition parties failed to reach agreement on a boycott over perceived flaws in the election process and preparations. Preliminary results are expected today, but early returns suggest that the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Umaru Yar'Adua, is likely to win the presidential vote and his party a sweeping legislative majority. However, domestic and international election observers have already voiced concerns over widespread voting irregularities including delays, missing ballots, ballot-box stuffing and inconsistent tallies.

Fragmented opposition. Leading the boycott talks were former military ruler and presidential candidate of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) Muhammadu Buhari; Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Action Congress (AC); and African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Pat Utomi. However, agreement was undermined by lack of trust between opposition groups -- which had also frustrated a planned AC/ANPP merger. Moreover, there was obvious enthusiasm among many Nigerians to exercise their civic right to vote (see OADB, March 23, 2007, III.).

Dubious state elections. The state executive and assembly elections went ahead as planned on April 14. However, poor logistical arrangements by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) resulted in late arrival in many cases -- and non-arrival in several cases -- of election officials or materials. There were also reports of hijacked ballot papers and materials, and voter intimidation by party thugs despite a heavy police presence.

Notwithstanding the apparent frustrations and constraints in various parts of the country, the results showed unprecedented high voter turnout of 95%. The results also showed that the PDP won a landslide victory, clinching 27 out of 36 state governorships and the majority of seats in 26 out of 36 state legislatures.

Rejection, protests and violence. The results of the April 14 polls were greeted by rejections, protests and violence. The PDP rejected results from three states -- Abia, Lagos and Kano, which declared for opposition parties -- while opposition parties rejected results declared for the ruling party in other states. This resulted in protests in various parts of the country, ranging from half-naked women walking in the streets to violent attacks against the persons and properties of suspected perpetrators of electoral fraud.

Post-election violence replicated the violence perpetrated on election day. In the capital of Rivers State, suspected militants razed three police stations, killing seven policemen in the process. The official casualty figure was put at 50, but the national branch of Amnesty International reported that 260 persons were killed, 330 persons sustained various categories of injuries and 21 public and private buildings were burnt during and after the April 14 elections.

Attempted amelioration. Local and international observers seriously criticised the conduct of the April 14 elections. After initial denials, both the federal government and INEC admitted that there were some anomalies in the elections and promised that the polls for the federal executive and legislature slated for April 21 would be better conducted (see OADB, January 23, 2007, II.). Elections in some constituencies were cancelled or rescheduled. In an apparent attempt to forestall a repeat of previous failures, INEC reassigned electoral commissioners in four states where the officials were perceived to have been compromised.

From bad to worse? Nevertheless, similar controversies marred the federal elections. In particular, INEC ignored calls by opposition parties for a postponement after the Supreme Court decided on April 16 in favour of Abubakar that INEC could not disqualify candidates -- forcing INEC to add his name to the ballots. Despite opposition concerns over its ability to prepare adequately, INEC claimed it had made contingency arrangements for the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling.

Logistical nightmares. However, election materials arrived from South Africa less than 24 hours before the elections. INEC did not have the capacity to deliver the voting materials to some 120,000 polling centres across the country in time, especially given the poor state of roads and airports in the country. A Navy helicopter detailed to airlift voting materials crashed in Imo State, killing three naval personnel. In Nassarawa State, gunmen ambushed police detailed to convey voting materials, reportedly killing nine.

Election sabotage? Amid concerns about logistics, several events occurred in quick succession which raised fears, especially in federal government and INEC circles, about plans by some to sabotage the elections:

-- On April 20, militants and suspected pirates invaded the
capital of oil-rich Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta region
with alleged plans to kidnap the state governor, Goodluck
Jonathan, who is the PDP vice-presidential candidate, and
destroy INEC facilities in the state and across the region.

-- On election day morning, a petrol tanker was crashed into
the INEC national headquarters in Abuja, but it failed to
explode.

Lower turnout and polling delays. Lower turnout in the federal elections appears to reflect voters' fears of violence and insecurity. Moreover, INEC's credibility was further eroded on April 20 when soldiers impounded a trunk-load of ballot papers thumb-printed in favour of the PDP in the northern state of Kaduna. Voters who nevertheless turned out at the polling stations faced various obstacles in many states:

-- INEC was forced by logistical problems to postpone national
assembly elections in some states.

-- While the logo of Abubakar's AC party was on the
presidential ballot, INEC failed to include it on the
federal legislature ballots.

-- Even where elections took place, materials frequently
arrived behind schedule or never arrived at all.

PDP victory. The coalition of local monitors, the Transitional Monitoring Group, has called for the cancellation and rescheduling of the elections. Both Buhari and Abubakar have already rejected the poll and called for fresh elections.

Nevertheless, Yar'Adua has expressed confidence of victory and commended INEC for its performance. Apart from the cosmopolitan state of Lagos, where Abubakar won, and the northern states of Bornu and Kano, which were declared for Buhari, Yar'Adua has swept the polls in other states so far declared. As such, the PDP candidate seems set not only to meet the simple majority requirement to win outright but also to win at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of states, a further constitutional requirement which -- if met -- would also stymie opposition challenges to the results.

Outlook. Any potential for military intervention has been seriously reduced by both international and local opinion, thus allowing Nigeria to record a successful civilian to civilian transition. Nonetheless, the legitimacy of the incoming administration has been compromised by the flawed elections, and political unrest by opposition supporters in the near term is likely.

There will certainly be numerous legal challenges to the conduct and results of the polls. Recent amendments in the Electoral Act, which provide for expeditious consideration of election cases, as well as the independence and candour shown by the judiciary in recent important judgements -- for example, Abubakar's successful challenge to his disqualification -- suggest that some results may be overturned, although fresh elections seem unlikely.
CONCLUSION: Although the PDP is expected to win by a large margin, it is evident that Nigeria has emerged from the elections more a divided than united nation. The credibility deficit of the elections will adversely affect the country's democratic stability, although the possibility of military intervention remains dim.